Updated weekly (every Friday): The European Network Operations Plan (NOP) – Rolling Seasonal Plan is a special version of the NOP in light of the current COVID-19 crisis. It provides for a consolidated European network view of the evolution of the air traffic and facilitates the planning of the service by ANSPs and airports to match expected traffic demand in a safe, efficient and coordinated manner. The European NOP Rolling Seasonal Plan is developed by EUROCONTROL NM in cooperation with the operational stakeholders ensuring a rolling outlook of initially six weeks, and updated every Friday.

Please click in the downloads section to view the latest version of the report: European Network Operations Plan (NOP) – Rolling Seasonal Plan. 

Outlook 24 May – 04 July 2021

Traffic outlook – Traffic in the last week of May is expected to be around 40% of 2019 traffic, with a daily average around 13500-14000 flights. Differently from the previous weeks, for the first time, this traffic outlook shows a higher increase in traffic for June than in the traffic outlook of last week. The average daily traffic is expected to be around 17000 flights in the first half of June (around 50% of 2019), and 20000 flights at the end of June (up to 60% of 2019 traffic). Another step increase is expected for beginning of July, with traffic up to 65% of 2019.

En-route capacity outlook – No major capacity issues are expected in May 2021. For June and July, considering the above traffic outlook, many ANSPs need to review their plans as the capacity provided would not be sufficient to cope with the traffic demand (Wien, Zagreb, Nicosia, Brest, Reims, Bordeaux, Athinai, Makedonia, Milano, Roma, Riga, Warsaw, Lisboa, Beograd, Barcelona and Zurich ACCs). Some flexibility will be also required to open more sectors during the peak hours or to extend the opening hours, and some ANSPs should plan to open their currently indicated maximum sector opening schemes to avoid en-route capacity delay (Brussels, Nicosia, Maastricht, Reims, Bremen, Athinai, Makedonia, Budapest, Milano, Skopje, Warsaw, Lisboa, Bucuresti, Beograd, Barcelona, Madrid, Ankara, Prestwick and London ACCs). Some upper layer sectors might also start to get overloaded during short traffic peaks from June onwards and some STAM measures might be needed to better balance traffic between the different layers. It is recommended for ANSPs to follow the sector opening schemes provided in the Summer 2021 NOP and to foresee a 10% buffer in the expected traffic demand to avoid sudden capacity problems and possible weather issues.

Airport outlook – Whilst operating in efficiency mode, more airports are now reporting an increase in their capacity offer and continue to confirm they can increase capacity with demand. Uncertainty associated to variations in traffic demand is identified in the mid-term airport planning and reporting rate. The situation will be monitored closely and recorded in future editions of the rolling NOP. Airports are requested to continue updating Airport Corner, clarifying capacity especially when infrastructure is highlighted as unavailable and including expected severe weather phenomena.

Safety – As part of the collaborative effort to ensure safe, smooth and coordinated recovery of the European ATM network operations from the COVID-19 crisis, the NM developed in cooperation with the EUROCONTROL Safety Team and the SAFOPS group a safety argument and a list of potential hazards/safety issues. The material has also been coordinated with the CANSO CESAF and with the EASA ATM CAG. The purpose of the Safety Argument is to assist ANSPs in planning the provision of a safe ATS when traffic increases, by providing a comprehensive reference to the elements of the functional system that might have been affected by the crisis-related measures and need to be properly accounted for and managed.

Green aviation measures – NM, together with the operational stakeholders, relaxed up to 1200 RAD measures. This generated distance flown savings amounting to 26000 NM per day. The RAD relaxation will continue until 4 November 2021 supported by a close traffic monitoring to assess the need to apply scenarios or re-instate some RAD restrictions, if so required.