The technology is almost ready, with Widerøe's first zero-emissions aircraft set to enter service in 2026. But it will take more than new propulsion and power systems for the fossil fuel era to end. 

Widerøe Zero is a consultancy-cum-incubator for a revolution in aviation. It will tackle all the regulatory, commercial and financing challenges involved in purchasing and operating an entirely new class of aircraft.

While its work will be immediately necessary for Norway, where the geography welcomes short-haul flights already possible with existing zero-emissions technology, other countries throughout Europe and beyond will also benefit from this knowledge. For example, Canada, New Zealand and parts of Latin America already have extensive short-haul networks.

“We have established Widerøe Zero because we need the freedom to think afresh. There are established ways of doing things in every existing airline. Running a zero-emissions fleet is going to be completely different,” says Andreas Kollbye Aks, former Director of Strategy at Widerøe and new CEO of Widerøe Zero.

Just a few models of aircraft dominate modern commercial aviation, and the knowledge and expertise gathered over decades of kerosene-fueled flying means that standardized “recipes for operation” are in place to guide airlines in everything from procurement to maintenance schedules.

But zero-emissions planes, be they powered electrically via batteries or fuel cells, or perhaps by burning hydrogen directly in a turbine engine, will have entirely different cost bases.

For example, airlines today spend between 20 and 25% of their operating budgets on fuel. Electricity costs for a battery-powered plane could be minimal, especially in countries like Norway with plentiful renewable energy. But hydrogen is still expensive to produce and more difficult to handle than liquid kerosene: here, in the short term at least, fuel costs could be much higher.

Buying new aircraft is a major decision for any airline, and Widerøe, with its fleet of mainly old planes, is fast approaching the need to order new machines. By 2026, the company aims to have at least one zero-emissions plane in commercial service. By 2030, Widerøe will start putting into service the zero-emissions plane that will replace the Dash8 fleet currently serving the Norwegian short-haul network.

“Committing to conventional technology at the time of a tipping point in commercial aviation would be foolhardy: kerosene-powered planes will quickly lose value as zero-emissions technology takes hold, and certainly well ahead of the depreciation curve expected during the typical lifespan of a commercial aircraft,” says Stein Nilsen, CEO of Widerøe.

But new technology is risky, and it also tends to change rapidly in its first few years of operation. Electric cars are a case in point: for example, in just a decade, battery range has gone from tens to hundreds of kilometers.

For this reason, Widerøe Zero will consider ways to hedge financing risks, such as procuring planes on a lend-lease basis and making use of government seat subsidies and other regulatory instruments such as tax and rebates.

Widerøe Zero will also consider how best to achieve maximum utilization of assets: zero-emissions planes will likely be much quieter than existing jet and propellor aircraft. As market effects take hold following expansion of infrastructure and decreasing cost of purchasing new aircraft, they will also be cheaper than conventional aircraft to operate.  

These factors mean it will be possible to derive much more value from each plane, and from a wider range of services than airlines offer today. These could include new freight and forwarding options, or on-demand chartering from government and private clients alike. With this, private capital is likely to flow ever-more rapidly to airlines making the move away from kerosene.